Just blocked a few who discuss this virus in terms of “predicting” & track record, as Phil the rat @PTetlock & others in the “forecasting” BS are presenting it.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 6, 2020
When you put your seat belt you aren’t “forecasting” a crash. When you lock your house you aren’t forecasting theft…
For those in quarantine (self-imposed or involuntary), a though problem by @SrinivasR1729 pic.twitter.com/dMOcjFwhmJ
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 5, 2020
Never complain about your enemies. You can insult them, anger them, expose them, but never whine about them.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) July 13, 2019
Push them to complain about you.
When you hedge, treat the possible as likely. When you speculate, treat the likely as merely possible.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) May 18, 2019
BEWARE THE “JUST SO”
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 16, 2019
It was always assumed that civilization began with agriculture.
Gobekli Tepe, though, was built 500 years before its people built their first farms.https://t.co/obthKq4f9m
FRACTAL LOCALISM
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 6, 2019
Defining complexity and selforganization before explaining socioeconomic LOCALISM pic.twitter.com/ogO0MC4Nmi
1) Religious statements are not epistemic (scientific, literal) claims, but risk-survival heuristics under incomplete understanding. Populations with the right risk heuristics survive. Others perish.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) June 21, 2018
2) Christianity has a built-in separation church/state.#SkinintheGame https://t.co/Fd9sEPdRsf
Try to be predictable to your friends and unpredictable to your enemies, rather than the opposite.
— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) June 14, 2018