Is the idea of a “climate haven” under water? » Yale Climate Connections
Is the idea of a “climate haven” under water? » Yale Climate Connections
Excerpt from this story from Yale Climate Connections:
Asheville, North Carolina, seemed like a good place to escape the worst of a warming world. The city’s appealing four-season climate includes summers with a typical daily high around 84°F – unusually low for the Southeast U.S. – and winters that aren’t too frigid. There’s typically plenty of moisture throughout the year, but with a mountain rain shadow that keeps Asheville a bit less wet than most of its neighbors. And the city takes climate seriously: findings from a climate resilience assessment have already been incorporated into Asheville’s comprehensive planning document.
In a 2018 Rolling Stone article, Jeff Goodell profiled one climate refugee who had considered the Tampa area before settling on Asheville. “No place is without risk, but in Asheville, the risks seem manageable,” Jeff Kaplan told Goodell. A 2021 Blue Ridge Public Radio segment portrayed Asheville as a climate “winner.”
Then came Hurricane Helene. After striking the Florida Panhandle at Category 4 strength, the storm took a quirky left hook across the southern Appalachians, pushing mammoth amounts of moisture upslope. Making matters worse, a predecessor rain event ahead of Helene had dumped six to 12 inches of rain across the region a day before the storm itself arrived.
The result was one of the most devastating, prolonged, and deadly hurricane-related U.S. flood disasters since the cataclysm of Katrina in 2005. Across the southern Appalachians – including Asheville – Helene destroyed roads, knocked out power and water lines, crippled communications, and took dozens of lives.
Among the things that make Helene different is that it arrived at a time when hurricane behavior is being measurably amped up in multiple ways by human-caused climate change. And it hammered a place now widely viewed to be at least somewhat insulated from the worst impacts of that changing climate.
Many folks seeking out climate-change-protected places in the U.S. have leaned toward small, progressive cities in relatively cool parts of the Midwest and East. Spikes in heat, drought, and wildfire that have plagued the West seem more likely to be tempered in these apparent havens. And in many of them, climate adaptation efforts are already underway.
As it turns out, most of the country east of the Rockies is getting wetter. Especially over the central and southern Appalachians, some locations saw a 5 to 10% rise in official annual precipitation when their 1980-2011 climate averages were replaced by the 1991-2020 figures. In Asheville, a typical year’s precipitation jumped from 37.32 to 40.61 inches.
Along with Asheville, a couple of other often-cited climate-change oases in the U.S. Midwest and East have experienced landmark rains and floods in recent years.
- Duluth, Minnesota, referred to in a 2023 New York Times writeup as “climate-proof Duluth” (and the subject of a study on how climate migration might change the city), experienced the worst flooding in its history on June 19-20, 2012, when the city was swamped by a record 7.24 inches of rain in 24 hours. Colossal rains were even more widespread across northeast Minnesota on June 18, 2024, when a number of stations reported 5-7.5 inches of rain – a daily total with an expected recurrence interval of 500 to 1,000 years, according to the National Weather Service.
- Vermont has long stood out as a potential U.S. climate refuge, with its environmentally friendly reputation, ample greenery and mountains, and normally mild summers. But when former Hurricane Irene ripped across the state as a tropical storm in August 2011, it brought massive rainfall that triggered one of Vermont’s worst disasters on record, rivaling or exceeding the notorious floods of 1927 in some areas. Then in 2023, weeks of early-summer wildfire smoke filtering south from Canada were followed by the Great Vermont Flood of July 10-11. Triggered by up to 9.61 inches of rain, the floods caused more than $2.2 billion in damage across northern New England and triggered the region’s first-ever flash flood emergency.