My latest column for
Locus Magazine is “Marshmallow Longtermism”; it’s a reflection on how conservatives self-mythologize as the standards-bearers for deferred gratification and making hard trade-offs, but are utterly lacking in these traits when it comes to climate change and inequality:
Conservatives often root our societal ills in a childish
impatience, and cast themselves as wise adults who understand that “you can’t get something for nothing.” Think here of the memes about lazy kids who would rather spend on avocado toast and fancy third-wave coffee rather than paying off their student loans. In this framing, poverty is a consequence of immaturity. To be a functional adult is to be sober in all things: not only does a grownup limit their intoxicant intake to head off hangovers, they also go to the gym to prevent future health problems, they save their discretionary income to cover a down-payment and student loans.
This isn’t asceticism, though: it’s a mature decision to delay gratification. Avocado toast is a reward for a life well-lived: once you’ve paid off your mortgage and put your kid through college,
then you can have that oat-milk latte. This is just “sound reasoning”: every day you fail to pay off your student loan represents another day of compounding interest. Pay off the loan first, and you’ll save many avo toasts’ worth of interest and your net toast consumption can go way, way up.
Cleaving the world into the patient (the mature, the adult, the wise) and the impatient (the childish, the foolish, the feckless) does important political work. It transforms every societal ill into a personal failing: the prisoner in the dock who stole to survive can be recast as a deficient whose partying on study-nights led to their failure to achieve the grades needed for a merit scholarship, a first-class degree, and a high-paying job.
Dividing the human race into “the wise” and “the foolish” forms an ethical basis for hierarchy. If some of us are born (or raised) for wisdom, then naturally those people should be in charge. Moreover, putting the innately foolish in charge is a recipe for disaster. The political scientist Corey Robin identifies this as the unifying belief common to every kind of conservativism: that some are born to rule, others are born to be ruled over:
This is why conservatives are so affronted by affirmative action, whose premise is that the absence of minorities in the halls of power stems from systemic bias. For conservatives, the fact that people like themselves are running things is evidence of their own virtue and suitability for rule. In conservative canon, the act of shunting aside members of dominant groups to make space for members of disfavored minorities isn’t justice, it’s dangerous “virtue signaling” that puts the childish and unfit in positions of authority.
Again, this does important political work. If you are ideologically committed to deregulation, and then a giant, deregulated sea-freighter crashes into a bridge, you can avoid any discussion of re-regulating the industry by insisting that we are living in a corrupted age where the unfit are unjustly elevated to positions of authority. That bridge wasn’t killed by deregulation – it’s demise is the fault of the DEI hire who captained the ship:
The idea of a society made up of the patient and wise and the impatient and foolish is as old as Aesop’s “The Ant and the Grasshopper,” but it acquired a sheen of scientific legitimacy in 1970, with Walter Mischel’s legendary “Stanford Marshmallow Experiment”:
In this experiment, kids were left alone in a locked room with a single marshmallow, after being told that they would get
two marshmallows in 15 minutes, but only if they waited until them to eat the marshmallow before them. Mischel followed these kids for decades, finding that the kids who delayed gratification and got that second marshmallow did better on every axis – educational attainment, employment, and income. Adult brain-scans of these subjects revealed structural differences between the patient and the impatient.
For many years, the Stanford Marshmallow experiment has been used to validate the cleavage of humanity in the patient and wise and impatient and foolish. Those brain scans were said to reveal the biological basis for thinking of humanity’s innate rulers as a superior subspecies, hidden in plain sight, destined to rule.
Then came the “replication crisis,” in which numerous bedrock psychological studies from the mid 20th century were re-run by scientists whose fresh vigor disproved and/or complicated the career-defining findings of the giants of behavioral “science.” When researchers re-ran Mischel’s tests, they discovered an important gloss to his findings. By questioning the kids who ate the marshmallows right away, rather than waiting to get two marshmallows, they discovered that these kids weren’t
impatient, they were
rational.
