Excerpt from this story from
Mongabay Environmental News:
A NASA study analyzed the future action of six climate variables in all the world’s regions — air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, short- and long wave solar radiation and wind speed — if Earth’s average temperature reaches 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, which could occur by 2040 if emissions keep rising at current rates.
The authors used advanced statistical techniques to downscale climate models at a resolution eight times greater than most previous models. This allows for identification of climate variations on a daily basis across the world, something essential since climate impacts unfold gradually, rather than as upheavals.
The study found that the Amazon will be the area with the greatest reduction in relative humidity. An analysis by the Brazilian space agency INPE showed that some parts of this rainforest biome have already reached maximum temperatures of more than 3°C (5.4°F) over 1960 levels.
Regardless of warnings from science and Indigenous peoples of the existential threat posed by climate change, the world’s largest fossil fuel producers, largely with government consent, plan to further expand fossil fuel exploration, says a U.N. report. That’s despite a COP28 climate summit deal “transitioning away from fossil fuels.”
In view of the current nonstop rise in greenhouse gas emissions responsible for intensifying climate change, NASA researchers this year posed two key questions: When will the planet’s temperature likely reach an annual average of 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels? And what will the global climate look like in great detail all over the world at that temperature?
Disturbingly, their findings indicate that a 2°C increase could be reached between 2041 and 2044 (under higher and lower emission scenarios, respectively) in comparison with the preindustrial period (1850-1900). The planet is currently at 1.15°C (2.07°F) above 19th century levels, with most of this warming occurring since 1975.
A rise above 2°C could put Earth on track for catastrophic climate change impacts, according to the 2023 report by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
To investigate the potential multiple effects of a 2°C planet, scientists at the NASA Earth eXchangeanalyzed the projections of 35 of the world’s leading climate models with a very high resolution that gives results for areas of just 25 square kilometers (9.6 square miles). Many climate models currently use a far coarser resolution of 200 km2 (77 mi2). NEX fine-scaling allowed for estimated climate impact projections on both a local and regional scale, and even on a daily basis.
“If merged into a monthly average, a few days projected to be dangerously hot and humid could get lost in the numbers, concealing the risk for human lives,” explained study lead author Taejin Park, a researcher at NASA’s Ames Research Center. “Finer-scale information can help identify variations in projected climate change that may be overlooked, so leading to significant impacts on planning and decision-making.”
In the 2040s, global mean near-surface air temperature over land is projected to increase 2.33-2.79°C (4.2-5°F), compared with the baseline period 1950–79. Greenland, Alaska, Canada, Northern Europe and Asia are projected to reach above a 3°C (5.4°F) increase in annual temperature. Image courtesy of NASA/Taejin Park.
If NASA’s projections are correct, a precipitation increase will occur over much of the northern hemisphere, especially in southeastern Greenland, but also in western and eastern Africa and South Asia, among other places. The Amazon Basin, on the other hand, will see a major decrease in precipitation. Dry regions such as Southern Africa, the North American Southwest and the Mediterranean also could see a precipitation decline. Image courtesy of NASA/Taejin Park.
After 2040, most regions of the world are expected to have more days with extreme heat stress, with heat especially pronounced in the Amazon, Central and Eastern North America, the Mediterranean and Eastern and Northern Asia. Heat stress can be devastating to wildlife, plants and of course, people. Image courtesy of NASA/Taejin Park.
Under a moderate emission scenario, Western and Central North America, the Amazon, the Mediterranean and South Africa will be at higher risk of fires in the 2040s, compared with 1950-79. Image courtesy of NASA/Taejin Park.
