Scientists explain why the record-shattering 2023 heat has them on edge. Warming may be worsening
Scientists explain why the record-shattering 2023 heat has them on edge. Warming may be worsening
Excerpt from this story from Daily Kos:
The latest calculations from several science agencies showing Earth obliterated global heat records last year may seem scary. But scientists worry that what’s behind those numbers could be even worse.
The Associated Press asked more than three dozen scientists in interviews and emails what the smashed records mean. Most said they fear acceleration of climate change that is already right at the edge of the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) increase since pre-industrial times that nations had hoped to stay within.
Average global temperatures broke the previous record by a little more than a quarter of a degree (0.15 degrees Celsius), a big margin, according to calculations Friday from two top American science agencies, the British meteorological service and a private group founded by a climate skeptic.
Several of the scientists who made the calculations said the climate behaved in strange ways in 2023. They wonder whether human-caused climate change and a natural El Nino were augmented by a freak blip or whether “there’s something more systematic afoot,” as NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt put it — including a much-debated acceleration of warming.
A partial answer may not come until late spring or early summer. That’s when a strong El Nino — the cyclical warming of Pacific Ocean waters that affects global weather patterns — is expected to fade away. If ocean temperatures, including deep waters, keep setting records well into the summer, like in 2023, that would be an ominous clue, they say.
Nearly every scientist who responded to AP’s questions blamed greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels as the overwhelmingly largest reason the world hit temperatures that human civilization has not likely seen before. El Nino, which is bordering on “very strong,” is the second-biggest factor, with other conditions far behind, they said.
The trouble with 2023, NASA’s Schmidt said, is “it was a very strange year … The more you dig into it, the less clear it seems.”
One part of that is the timing for when 2023’s big burst of heat began, according to Schmidt and Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Europe’s Copernicus Climate Service, which earlier this week put warming at 1.48 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times.
Temperatures are typically highest above normal in late winter and spring, they said. But 2023’s highest heat kicked in around June and lingered at record levels for months.
Deep ocean heat, a big player in global temperatures, behaved in a similar way, Burgess said.